About POPCORN-NCD
POPCORN-NCD (Population Health Modelling Consensus Reporting Network for Noncommunicable Diseases) is an international initiative to develop reporting guidelines for simulation modelling studies that address noncommunicable diseases at the population level.
What is population health NCD simulation modelling?
Population health NCD simulation modelling uses computational approaches to explore ‘what if’ scenarios about disease burden, disease dynamics, risk factor exposures, and health outcomes in populations. By combining theoretical, observational and experimental evidence from multiple sources, these models generate insights for questions that are too complex, too time-consuming, too dangerous, or simply impossible to answer through real-world experimentation. They evaluate interventions—from individual behaviours to population-wide policies—to identify strategies that could improve population health and reduce inequalities.
Simulation as a science approach
Simulation modelling represents a distinct scientific approach alongside theoretical, observational, and experimental methods.
Theoretical
Propose why phenomena occur
Observational
Analyze what is
Simulation
Explore what could be
POPCORN’s Focus
Experimental
Test what changes when
Why we need POPCORN-NCD
Overwhelming international consensus from modellers, journal editors, and knowledge users supports the need for standardised reporting guidance (1–3). Currently:
- Inconsistent reporting practices hinder model evaluation and comparison
- Journal editors lack clear guidance for reviewing modelling manuscripts
- Scientists and technical experts struggle to assess model validity and reproduce findings
- Policymakers find it difficult to interpret and apply model findings
- The public lacks accessible information to understand and trust model-based evidence
The COVID-19 pandemic underscored these challenges: while models played a critical role in informing decisions, lack of transparent, standardised reporting complicated public trust and cross-model comparisons.
POPCORN-NCD will provide model-specific guidance while maintaining consistency with established reporting guidelines like CONSORT, STROBE, and CHEERS.
Who should use POPCORN-NCD?
- Researchers and modellers: Write more complete and transparent model descriptions
- Journal editors and reviewers: Evaluate completeness and quality with consistent criteria
- Scientists and technical experts: Assess model validity, compare methods, and build on existing work
- Policymakers and guideline developers: Better understand model assumptions, limitations, and applicability to decisions
- Public health practitioners and clinicians: Interpret findings for local context and implementation
- General public: Access clear, understandable explanations of how models work and their limitations
EQUATOR registration
POPCORN-NCD is registered with the EQUATOR Network, ensuring the guideline reflects international consensus and follows rigorous development methodology.
Get involved
Funding: Canadian Institutes for Health Research [CIHR FRN 162222]
Institutional support: The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute